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AUGUST 20,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 9:03 P.M. ET:

GETTING TIGHT IN LIBYA – You have to be careful about taking everything that comes out of Libya at face value, but it does appear that the rebels are now fighting for the capital of Tripoli, where, presumably, Muammar Gadaffi is hiding, counting his frequent flier miles.  There have also been battles reported in other parts of Libya, with the rebels winning some, and loyalists winning others.  Is this the endgame?  We don't know.  We aren't even sure who the rebels are and where their loyalties lie.  But there is a growing feeling that Gadaffi's days in "power" are numbered.

OUTMIGRATION? – A Dubai-based newspaper asks in an editorial whether Americans will leave America if job opportunities appear in other countries.  The paper asks, provocatively, whether there will someday be "Americatowns" in Chinese cities.  The fact is that there was some serious outmigration during the Great Depression, with a number of immigrants returning to their native countries.  And we know that the flow of illegal immigrants into the United States has slowed dramatically as a result of hard times here.  But I really doubt that native-born Americans will leave the U.S., except for extreme economic opportunity.   Unless free wi-fi is involved.

DEMS PANIC IN WEINER'S DISTRICT – Disgraced and resigned Democratic Congressman Anthony Weiner represented a district in New York considered absolutely safe.  No great campaigns required.  Just truck the Dem voters to the polls on election day.  But now a minor panic has broken out among Democratic officials, who realize that the district may go, gulp, Republican.  Republican candidate Bob Turner has the support of former Mayor (and lifelong Democrat) Ed Koch, and a recent poll showed him within six points of Dem nominee David Weprin.  Barack Obama's numbers are in free fall in New York State, which isn't helping Weprin.  Dems are trying to scare voters by claiming that Turner will take away their Social Security and Medicare.

PENNSYLVANIA SLIPPING FOR OBAMA – AT 9:28 P.M. ET:  No Dem since Harry Truman in 1948 has won the presidency without carrying Pennsylvania.  But a new poll puts President Obama's approval rating in the state at 35%.  The economy is clearly the main factor.  If Pennsylvania remains competitive in 2012, you may be sure Republicans will remind voters of Obama's 2008 comments about the state, made privately...that people in Pennsylvania, when confronting their fears, cling to their guns and their religion.  First time around, even that statement didn't break through the hypnotizing effect of Obamamania.  Pennsylvania voted for him.  This time around?  I wouldn't be so sure.

August 20, 2011     Permalink

TROUBLE AHEAD IN NEW YORK? – AT 11:17 A.M. ET:  The Dominique Strauss-Kahn case hasn't been in the headlines recently, but it's about to return, and there is potential for racial unrest, should some irresponsible elements choose to exploit it.

You'll undoubtedly recall that Kahn, then president of the International Monetary Fund, was charged with sexual assault by a maid in a New York hotel.  The charge itself cost Kahn his job.  Kahn, who has a reputation for womanizing, was presumed guilty.  It later turned out, however, that the maid had substantial credibility problems and had apparently been deceptive in interviews with authorities.  It was widely reported that Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus Vance Jr. was seriously considering dropping the charges against Strauss-Kahn.

The maid is a woman of color, and some community leaders are leading rallies, demanding that the charges against Strauss-Kahn be pursued, and that he be tried.  But D.A. Vance must ultimately decide whether he can get a conviction, considering the accuser's reportedly considerable baggage.  There are also reports, unconfirmed, that the maid would settle the case for dollars. 

The problem here is that, if Vance drops charges, irresponsible leaders looking to advance themselves could call for protests.  We have seen flash mobs all over the country this summer, and what is clearly not needed is an irritant in New York.  Vance is set to announce his decision this week.  From The New York Times:

With Cyrus R. Vance Jr., the Manhattan district attorney, seemingly poised to announce on Tuesday whether he will seek dismissal of the charges in the sexual assault case against Dominique Strauss-Kahn, it is clear that his decision has the potential to carry political ramifications.

Letitia James, a Brooklyn councilwoman, plans to hold a rally on Monday afternoon in front of the courthouse in Manhattan urging Mr. Vance to proceed with the case against Mr. Strauss-Kahn, the former head of the International Monetary Fund.

And Kenneth P. Thompson, the lawyer for the hotel housekeeper who accused Mr. Strauss-Kahn of assaulting her in Manhattan in May, plans to hold a news conference outside the courthouse after Mr. Vance announces his decision. Mr. Thompson’s law partner is expected to hold a parallel news conference in Paris.

Hints of the possible political fallout from the case have been apparent ever since Mr. Vance revealed in June that his office had serious questions about the credibility of Mr. Strauss-Kahn’s accuser.

Vance is a decent guy, the son of the late Secretary of State Cyrus Vance, who served in the Carter administration.  He'll have problems no matter what he decides, but those who know him believe he'll decide his course on the merits.

It will be fascinating to see how The Times, a paper notorious for political correctness in racial cases, handles the decision.

August 20, 2011       Permalink

OUTRAGE – AT 10:38 A.M. ET:  Iran has sentenced two American hikers who drifted into Iranian territory to eight years in prison, claiming that they were "spies."  From AP:

TEHRAN, Iran — Two American men already held for two years in Tehran have been sentenced to 8 years each in prison on charges of espionage and illegal entry into Iran, state TV reported Saturday.

The announcement appeared to dash hopes for the imminent release of Shane Bauer and Josh Fattal after Iran’s foreign minister suggested earlier this month that the trial could clear the way for their freedom.

The Americans deny the charges and say they were only hiking in a scenic and largely peaceful area of northern Iraq near the Iranian border.

COMMENT:  Iran has not presented a single shred of evidence against the Americans.  I must label this as informed speculation, but I suspect the real reason for the sentences is to have American hostages.  Most of us recall the hostage crisis of 1979, and what it did to the Carter administration.  Knowing that there are Americans imprisoned in Iran would weigh heavily on any American president considering, for instance, an attack on Iran's nuclear program. 

Iran has now been formally charged by American officials with fomenting terror attacks in both Iraq and Afghanistan.  Its nuclear program proceeds, without effective intervention by the "international community."  And yet, it has disappeared from the front pages of American newspapers.

By the way, please note that fringe Republican candidate for president, Ron Paul, actually defends Iran and its drive for a nuclear weapon.  He did so quite openly during the last presidential debate, asserting that we are responsible for Iran's behavior.  I hope more people become familiar with Ron Paul's eccentric and inept foreign-policy views before he's taken seriously.

August 20, 2011       Permalink

WHERE OBAMA STANDS – AT 10:18 A.M. ET:  RealClearPolitics has the aggregate of polls of President Obama's job approval at 43.6% approve, 50.3% disapprove. 

However, that aggregate average includes polls with a variety of track records.  Gallup is showing 40% approval, 53% disapproval.  Gallup had Obama down to 39% earlier in the week.  Rasmussen, which polls likely voters, has Obama at 45% approve, 53% disapprove.

So we can reasonably assume that a slight majority of those polled – and it can vary from "all adults" to "likely voters, depending on the poll" – now disapprove of the president's job performance, and that 40-45% approve. 

Those are poor numbers, but they are not dismal.  However, please note that this president, for unique reasons, has a base of support that will always be with him.  This could be for ethnic or ideological reasons.  So that base will not vary as much as other voter groups, even Democratic groups, might.

Even with Rick Perry running, we still get signs of rumbling in Republican circles that the GOP field doesn't contain an obvious candidate capable of defeating Obama, who is a superb campaigner.  We can say, as we look to the end of the August doldrums, that the entire political picture is very unsettled, and subject to surprises and jolts.

August 20, 2011     Permalink

AUGUST 19,  2011

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:27 P.M. ET:

HIS AND HERS, HOW LOVELY – It turns out that President Obama and Michelle Obama took separate government jets to Martha's Vineyard just hours apart to begin their 1,207th vacation since the president was sworn in.  You would think there'd be more sensitivity to the appearances, to the extra costs involved, but this administration shows utter contempt for the very people it claims to represent.  The liberals used to complain about "the imperial presidency."  Well, they've created one.  God save the king, and queen, and Jeeves will fetch their aircraft.

A GENTLE SLAP – Governor Haley Barbour of Mississippi, former Republican national chairman and a man who may know more about national politics than anyone around, has delivered a gentle slap on the wrist to his friend, Rick Perry.  After saying that southern conservatives are going to be "nitpicked" by the liberal media over everything they say, Barbour nonetheless gently derided Perry for some of Perry's loose-cannon language this week, especially Perry's description of possible moves by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke as "treasonous."  Barbour said, "I think Rick Perry has to get prepared for the fact that he's gonna be nitpicked by the liberal media elite for everything he says and that he has to be very careful because everything that he says that can be taken out of context, will be taken out of context."  Barbour said he would not have used Perry's language.  Governor Perry, that's good advice from a good man.

THE POOR TASTE AWARD – I hate to give it to a conservative, but State Senator Frank Antenori of Tucson has expressed interest in running for the Congressional seat now held by Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords, who was horrendously wounded in a shooting in Tucson earlier this year.  I wish he'd just availed himself of the Constitutional right to shut up.  Gabrielle Giffords, a traditional pro-defense Democrat married to a recently retired Navy officer and astronaut, has become a revered figure, respected for her service and the medical fight she's been waging.   It appears that she'll be well enough to run again.  Unless her district is heavily gerrymandered, she has no chance of losing.  What should Republicans do?  Just endorse her and send her on her way.  It would be a respected, appreciated gesture, and she might even feel a connection to both parties.  Many of her instincts, after all, like passionate support for the Second Amendment, are conservative.  Joint endorsements are not unknown.  There's a place in politics for some class.

SARAH'S KNACK – Whatever anyone thinks of Sarah Palin, she has an unparalleled knack for attracting attention and publicity.  There's now renewed buzz that she's soon going to announce her candidacy for president.  She's dropped a number of hints in recent days, and Karl Rove said on Fox today that her schedule after Labor Day looks suspiciously like a candidate's.  Will she make a difference if she gets in?  Hard to say.  She's lost substantial popularity within the Republican Party, and I've long felt that her resignation from the Alaska governorship was fatal.  But she's going to attract massive news coverage, and inevitably it will be said that she was just jealous of Michele Bachmann.  I don't think one can easily predict what will happen if she gets in, but she'll certainly sell more books.  The key, if she does take the plunge, will be for her to surprise us by coming thoroughly briefed and prepared to discuss any issue in detail.

August 19, 2011       Permalink

OUR FADING INFLUENCE – AT 9:29 A.M. ET:   Russia is once again thumbing its nose at the United States, making it very clear that Barack Obama's "reset" of relations with Moscow has been a colossal failure, like most of the rest of his foreign policy.  Yesterday the Obama administration called for Syrian dictator Assad to go.  Russia's answer came today:

(CNN) -- Russia opposes U.S. and European leaders' calls for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to resign, Interfax news agency reported Friday, saying that the leader should get more time to implement reforms.
The move by Russia counters efforts by leaders ratcheting up international pressure against a regime criticized for its brutal crackdown against protesters calling for reforms and the ouster of al-Assad.

"We do not support such calls, and we think that President al-Assad should be given time today to implement all of the declared reform processes," a Russian Foreign Ministry official told the nation's Interfax news agency.
The White House has previously said al-Assad had "lost legitimacy," but resisted calling explicitly for his ouster until now.

"The future of Syria must be determined by its people, but President Bashar al-Assad is standing in their way," President Barack Obama said in a statement Thursday. "We have consistently said that President Assad must lead a democratic transition or get out of the way. He has not led. For the sake of the Syrian people, the time has come for President Assad to step aside." 

Assad has not yet called his travel agent.  Indeed, today, a day after the dictator said that the crackdown against dissenters was over, more were killed as Syrians poured into the streets, calling for an end to the regime.

Russia has once again proved unhelpful.  In fact, I can't recall when it's ever been helpful. It's becoming increasingly undemocratic, and it's building its military once more, unveiling its first stealth fighter just this week.  And yet, you would never know it from the pearly words coming from the Obamans.  You put the most left-wing member of the Senate in the White House, you get what's expected.

August 19, 2011       Permalink 

OBAMA'S POLITICAL WOES – AT 9:01 A.M. ET:   Based on poll results, Obama is in serious trouble, at least right now.  Michael Gerson, at WaPo, gives a good analysis of the president's position, and his potential:

To be safe, a president needs a Gallup job approval of 50 percent or better on Election Day. George W. Bush narrowly won reelection in 2004 with a 48 percent Gallup approval, mainly because his voters were more motivated than John Kerry’s. After a long, slow slide, Obama’s approval hovers in the low 40s. He starts with ground to make up.

Lacking the momentum of an economic recovery, the Obama campaign is signaling three elements of a political recovery strategy.

First — 32 months after his inauguration, 28 months after the unemployment rate first surged past 9 percent — Obama will propose a “very specific” jobs package. In September. Following a well-deserved vacation.

And...

The second element of Obama’s recovery strategy is to distance himself from a divided, dysfunctional, unpopular Congress. This, of course, is not fully consistent with element one — getting legislative achievements out of an institution you are savaging...A president cannot distance himself from a process he is supposed to lead and failed to lead effectively.

And...

Third, the Obama camp has previewed a campaign of personal attacks against its Republican opponent, whoever it happens to be. Obama advisers and Democratic strategists have been quoted by Politico calling Mitt Romney “weird,” possessing an “innate phoniness,” which will allow Democrats to “kill” his campaign. David Axelrod, Obama’s chief strategist, has distanced himself from these comments. But such hardball is consistent with the way Obama has treated Speaker John Boehner (going to his home state of Ohio in 2010 to attack him directly) and Rep. Paul Ryan (inviting Ryan to a budget speech in which Obama trashed him as an enemy of children with Down syndrome).

And...

Obama’s cause is far from hopeless. His support has declined but not collapsed. A weak Republican opponent would help. And this emerging strategy — proposing symbolic measures on jobs, bashing an unpopular Congress and discrediting rivals — may be Obama’s only option. A campaign taking credit for positive economic accomplishments would be nearly silent...

...And this strategy must be a comedown for at least some of the idealists who elected Obama in the first place. Following expectations few presidents have raised as high, Obama has transformed into the most typical of politicians. There is little distinctive, elevated or inspirational about his message or his tactics. And this adds an unwanted accomplishment: the further political disillusionment of a nation.

COMMENT:  Very good analysis.  I would add, though, that Obama still has the media on his side, and that may be decisive in a close election.   Given a choice between a failed Obama and a potentially successful Republican, the choice of most journalists will be to stick with the man who makes them culturally happy. 

The election is still more than a year away.  The whole world can be different by then.  This will be a long and bitter fight.  I don't see national unity as an outcome.

August 19, 2011       Permalink

YOUR TAX DOLLARS AT WORK – AT 8:38 A.M. ET:  Remember when we were thrilled by the name NASA?  Remember flights to the moon?  Remember "A-OK?"  Now look at this: 

It may not rank as the most compelling reason to curb greenhouse gases, but reducing our emissions might just save humanity from a pre-emptive alien attack, scientists claim.

Watching from afar, extraterrestrial beings might view changes in Earth's atmosphere as symptomatic of a civilisation growing out of control – and take drastic action to keep us from becoming a more serious threat, the researchers explain.

This highly speculative scenario is one of several described by a Nasa-affiliated scientist and colleagues at Pennsylvania State University that, while considered unlikely, they say could play out were humans and alien life to make contact at some point in the future.

Shawn Domagal-Goldman of Nasa's Planetary Science Division and his colleagues compiled a list of plausible outcomes that could unfold in the aftermath of a close encounter, to help humanity "prepare for actual contact".

COMMENT:  I plan to be out of town when it happens.  Fill me in.

August 19, 2011      Permalink

WELCOME TO THE RECOVERY – AT 8:26 A.M. ET:  Analysts are expecting another bad day on Wall Street:

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks were headed for another day of losses Friday, as worries of a global slowdown and Europe's debt crisis sparked a second sell-off in global markets.

Dow Jones industrial average (INDU), S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq (COMP) futures fell between 1.5% and 2% ahead of the opening bell. Stock futures indicate the possible direction of the markets when they open at 9:30 a.m. ET.

COMMENT:  But look, you never know.  The stock market isn't the real economy.  It's New York's upscale version of Las Vegas.   I'm sure you've seen these "experts" on TV who glance back at a numbers board and say grimly to viewers, "The Dow took a tumble today on news that Hewlett-Packard found a mouse in the basement."  The next day the same guy is back with, "The Dow smiled today on news that Hewlett-Packard sold a printer to a teacher in Des Moines."  And this is taken seriously by "investuhs." 

It's a grand game, but I find it hard to believe that real economic conditions change enough in one day for the market to soar 400 points, then drop 400 points.  The board game, Monopoly, is more rational.  Just pass GO and collect two hundred bucks.  Sounds good to me.

August 19, 2011     Permalink